As the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) hangs in uncertainty, many families across the continent are once again discovering how quickly global trade politics can threaten jobs ordinary people depend on for survival.
Development Diaries reports that discussions around the possible expiration of the AGOA in 2026 are raising fresh concerns about the future of African exports to the United States, especially under a political climate in Washington increasingly shaped by bilateral ‘America First’ negotiations and stricter economic conditions.
For years, AGOA helped several African countries export goods to the United States without heavy tariffs, with the arrangement becoming a lifeline for export industries, particularly garment manufacturing, in countries like Kenya, Lesotho, Ethiopia, Mauritius, and South Africa, where thousands of workers, mostly women, depend on factory wages to support entire households.
For example, inside Kenya’s Mombasa free trade zone, factories producing clothes for American markets employ large numbers of women whose livelihoods now quietly sit at the mercy of negotiations they may never fully understand but whose consequences they will certainly feel.
For these workers, AGOA is rent money, school fees, transport fare, and the difference between surviving inside formal employment or returning to the uncertainty of informal work.
The fear now growing across parts of Africa is that once AGOA expires without replacement or renewal, exporting goods into the United States will become more expensive.
The price advantage many African factories currently enjoy will disappear, and businesses already struggling inside an unforgiving global economy will begin reconsidering whether production in Africa still makes financial sense.
That is why many workers are watching global politics with the same nervousness football fans reserve for penalty shootouts. One decision taken thousands of kilometres away in Washington could quietly determine whether factories continue operating or begin announcing ‘temporary suspensions’ that workers already know often become permanent unemployment.
The problem with this arrangement is that countries negotiating alone against powerful economies rarely secure the best outcomes, as bigger powers usually prefer divided bargaining because it weakens collective resistance and increases leverage during negotiations.
That reality is now exposing one of Africa’s long-standing economic weaknesses. Despite years of speeches about continental integration, many African economies still depend heavily on external markets instead of building stronger internal trade systems capable of protecting the continent from sudden global political changes.
This is where the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) enters the discussion with renewed urgency. The agreement was created to strengthen trade among African countries themselves and reduce dependence on foreign markets.
But the reality remains frustratingly slow, as goods still move across many African borders like travellers trapped inside endless airport immigration queues, while poor infrastructure, inconsistent standards, border delays, weak logistics systems, and bureaucratic bottlenecks continue slowing down the dream of seamless continental trade.
As a result, many African countries still find it easier to export products to Europe or America than to neighbouring African states. The possible expiration of AGOA is now exposing the danger of that dependence more clearly than ever.
The people likely to suffer first if things go badly are mostly women working inside export industries, as across many African garment factories, women form the majority of the workforce. These are women with formal jobs, labour protections, health coverage, and wages often better than what informal work provides.
Losing those jobs could push many families backwards economically at a time when living costs are already squeezing households across the continent.
Women involved in informal cross-border trade would also benefit greatly from faster implementation of Africa’s continental trade agreement, yet they remain among the least represented voices in the high-level trade negotiations shaping the continent’s economic future.
African governments also face difficult accountability questions because many citizens are now asking why stronger continental preparation did not happen earlier. Trade ministries across the continent largely approached AGOA separately instead of building one coordinated African negotiating strategy long before the deadline approached.
The African Union, the AfCFTA Secretariat, and national governments all carry responsibilities here because trade agreements directly affect employment, income, food security, and economic stability for millions of citizens.
This is also a rights issue. The right to decent work and fair labour conditions is recognised under international human rights frameworks. When governments fail to prepare adequately for foreseeable economic disruptions capable of affecting entire employment sectors, ordinary workers become the ones paying the highest price for policy failures they did not create.
Ultimately, the uncertainty surrounding AGOA is about whether Africa is finally prepared to build an economy that does not constantly leave ordinary citizens vulnerable whenever political winds change in Washington, Beijing, or Brussels.
Photo source: ADN
